Friday, October 26, 2012

How Slight Sleep Deprivation Could Add Extra Pounds

New analysis shows that metabolic effects caused by even a couple nights with less than six hours of shut-eye may feed obesity


sleep deprivation obesitySleep more to weight less?: Research from controlled trials is accumulating to suggest that just skipping a couple hours of sleep could make for big--and not so great--biological consequences for your body. Image: iStockphoto/iPandastudio

Getting seven to eight solid hours of sleep each night might seem an almost impossible luxury to many people. But not getting enough sleep is known to impair mental function and increase the risk for heart disease, among other ill effects. Accumulating evidence also suggests that even short-term, partial sleep deprivation could pave the way for weight gain and other negative metabolic consequences.

More than 28 percent of adults in the U.S. report that they get less than six hours of sleep a night, with this cumulative deprivation becoming more common in the past three decades. And now that more than 35 percent of U.S. adults are currently obese, researchers have been searching for potential links between the two conditions, in hopes of reducing the increasing health and economic burden of obesity. Establishing lack of sleep as a risk factor for weight gain could have important clinical and public health effects, possibly allowing people to make simple lifestyle changes to improve their metabolic health.

A new report, published online October 24 in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, reviews 18 carefully controlled laboratory studies that tested human subjects' physiological and behavioral responses to sleep deprivation as they relate to metabolic health.

Reena Mehra, an associate professor of medicine who studies sleep and health at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine and who was not involved in the new analysis, notes that the new paper is "a well done review of the experimental data."

The researchers found that studies of people without sleep-related conditions who got consecutive nights of four to six hours of sleep revealed a wide range of negative effects involving appetite hormone signaling, physical activity, eating behavior and even fat-loss rates. "From a population health perspective, this helps to get people to understand that sleep deprivation really does have an impact on your health," Mehra says.

To sleep, perchance to eat less
Perhaps some of the best-documented effects of sleep deprivation on weight are based on two powerful hormones: ghrelin and leptin. Ghrelin is involved in sending hunger signals and leptin helps to tell you that you are full. In one study, after just two consecutive nights of four-hours' sleep, test subjects had a 28 percent higher ghrelin (hunger) hormone level and 18 percent lower leptin (satiety) hormone level in their blood compared with subjects who had spent 10 hours a night in bed. In the same study, for those who were sleep deprived, "self-reported hunger and appetite ratings significantly increased by 24 percent and 23 percent, respectively," noted the authors of the review paper, which was led by Julie Shlisky, a researcher at The New York Obesity Nutrition Research Center at Saint Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital Center. "The greatest increase in appetite rating was for energy-dense, high-carbohydrate foods," Shlisky and her co-authors noted. Other studies found additional increases in fat and saturated fat consumed by those suffering from sleep deprivation. One study also found a change in another eating signal called peptide YY, which is thought to tell the body it is full after eating enough. It dropped off in a group of subjects who had been allowed only five hours in bed for two nights, suggesting that these sleepy subjects would be more inclined to eat more given the opportunity.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=f85bc619252973848cbe2f2731d62c14

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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Mobile Cell Phone Jammer: A kind of mini GPS cell phone jammer ...

A kind of mini GPS cell phone jammer will be introduced in details.
In the 1990s a few years ago, the annual growth rate of the wireless paging users up to 30% -40%, cordless telephone users annual growth rate of about 30%, while the annual growth rate of mobile phone users is as high as 40% -50% . Needless to say, the phone is by far the most widely used consumer electronics devices. Data show that 2005 alone, there are 780 million mobile phones sold, making the world's mobile phone users reached 20 million people in the next few years, the number of users will continue to improve, is expected to mobile phone users will become a three billion in 2008. It is noteworthy that these mobile phone users, 95 percent of people using mobile phones for voice and SMS communication. The camouflage end of cell phone jammer is put into the cigarette pack.
In fact, the history of the development of mobile phones not only on behalf of the advancement of technology, but also the witness of the development of human civilization, from analog to GSM and from GSM to the GPRS from a single frequency to dual-band from the English menu to Chinese input, from voice to SMS . Phone the speed of development and increasing. China's mobile phone production and sales than the negative growth. Mobile phone production capacity of the oversupply situation will continue. Manufacturers within the industry is very competitive. There are nearly 40 mobile phone manufacturers. Motorola, Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, LG, Lenovo, Bird, TCL, Konka, Philips and Amoi, so many well-known foreign manufacturers and domestic manufacturers market separatist situation. The blocking radius of the GPS cell phone jammer is about 10-20m.
There are some alternative pressure. Because of the special circumstances of China's market, that PHS is a common alternative. This is the true sense of the single charge mobile phones. 3G licenses to the time to continue being pushed, China Telecom and China Netcom in order to increase the experience of mobile operators continue to promote PHS business. In 2004, PHS new users up to 28 million, an increase of 40 percent, market size has reached about 30 million. Such a large consumer groups got all the ordinary part of the mobile phone market share to the general mobile phone manufacturers has caused some market pressure. According to information released by the Ministry of Information Industry, Chinese mobile phone users has exceeded 460 million in 2006.

Source: http://mobilecellphonejammer.blogspot.com/2012/10/a-kind-of-mini-gps-cell-phone-jammer.html

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Dedicated Styles Of Easily Affordable Hosting Companies | FBF ...

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Social websites online pages have built-in by themselves in lots of people?s lives. Fb, Twitter, Google+, LinkedIn, Pinterest, and lots of people are becoming an element of our each day lives. Together with the overall media webpages you?ll notice various area of interest web sites that aid people of everyday beliefs, pursuits, or professions, community with just about every other. Social networking webpages supply a practically limitless supply of contacts and they are a suggested resource for romance constructing and visitors era. On account of the recognition of those online websites, back links designed should help transform your internet search engine position in the process.

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Source: http://freebookfor.com/2012/10/24/dedicated-styles-of-easily-affordable-hosting-companies/

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Exclusive Alicia Keys Blog on Her Family Roots

Lately, with the holidays around the corner and with my son Egypt coming to an age of greater awareness, I've been thinking about what our family traditions are and how to make the most of them.

Source: http://www.ivillage.com/alicia-keys-blog-family-traditions/1-a-496677?dst=iv%3AiVillage%3Aalicia-keys-blog-family-traditions-496677

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Sprint Samsung Galaxy S3 to see Jelly Bean from October 25?

Android Central

Sprint Samsung Galaxy S3 owners might want to take a look at this one. Android Central Forums member Skunkape60 shared this image with us all a little earlier today that, if genuine, indicates the Android 4.1 update to the Galaxy S3 will start pushing out from October 25. That's tomorrow then. We've got a build number, a reminder to the stores to update their own devices, pretty much everything. 

It also looks like the Sprint update will bring some LTE related improvements too. It does say that it will be rolling out over the course of a few weeks, so be patient. But, from tomorrow, start checking for those updates.

Source: Android Central Forums, More: Hands on with Jelly Bean on the Galaxy S3



Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/androidcentral/~3/ro0GAaeBL1U/story01.htm

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'Genius' Award Winner Hunts Down Dead Zones

In recent summers, the so-called "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico has been as large as the state of New Jersey. Marine ecologist Nancy Rabalais has been working for nearly 30 years to track the zone's size and location, to determine what causes it and to try to prevent it from continuing to grow.

Her work has paid off; out of the blue, she recently received a phone call to tell her that she'd been awarded a $500,000 MacArthur Fellowship, also known as the "genius" grant, which can be spent however she likes.

Rabalais, a researcher at the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium in Cocodrie, said she plans to spend it on her research, which has linked dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico to nutrient runoff from fertilizers used in farming throughout the Mississippi River basin. These nutrients spawn enormous blooms of algae, which eventually sink and decay, consuming oxygen in the water column.? This creates vast tracts of water without oxygen, killing almost all life in the immediate area.

OurAmazingPlanet chatted with Rabalais about her work and receiving the award. The following is an edited transcript of the conversation.

OurAmazingPlanet: Tell me about the experience of getting the award.

Nancy Rabalais: Well, I'm certainly honored. I never thought I'd have one. ?

OAP: How'd you find out that you'd won?

N.R.: I was in Mexico at a meeting and I got a phone call from a number I didn't recognize. And I thought, should I answer it? I did, and the gentleman informed me I'd won the award. It was a surprise.

OAP: What do you plan on using the award money for?

N.R.: Putting it back into our research. Our budget is shrinking due to budget problems. It will help me pay my students, pay for equipment and traveling. ?

OAP: Tell me about your research.

N.R.: We clearly linked hypoxic areas, or dead zones, in the Gulf to landscape activities in the Mississippi watershed. Those connections are pretty obvious in other areas around the world. It was hard to convince water managers and resource managers that this was the situation here.

It's led to legislation and policy statements and efforts to do something about it. That's pretty rewarding, even though [these policy efforts] haven't gone that far.

OAP: What do you mean by "landscape activities?"

N.R.: Mostly farming ? most excess nitrogen and phosphorous comes from farming activities.

OAP: What's so bad about dead zones?

N.R.: When you consider that an area the size of New Jersey doesn't support fish, shrimp, crabs or any other marine life, that's significant. The fisheries in the Gulf haven't cratered, but they have in other parts of the world with dead zones.

OAP: What can be done to fight these dead zones?

N.R.: It's going to take changes in the way we live, and in our agricultural system; we'll have to address agricultural subsidies, which encourage overfertilizing. But it's not just the farm community; wastewater plants can get better. There's also atmospheric deposition of nutrients into the water from burning fossil fuels.

There are a lot of best management practices for farming that can be implemented ? There's no mechanical or chemical solution.

?

OAP: How'd you get interested in this topic?

N.R.: The director [of the marine consortium] suspected it was a problem, and got the money to study it, and said: "Research this." So I did. That was 28 years ago.

The more I studied it, the more interested I became. The public outreach became important, as well.

It's a problem of water quality, which affects the health of everybody. It affects farmers. It affects fishermen. ?

OAP: What are you working on now that you're most excited about?

N.R.: We have instruments offshore that monitor oxygen in real time, and I'd like to see more about how these oxygen levels change as dead zones grow. ?

OAP: Is it difficult to get people to think about changing their behavior when it's a matter of collective responsibility, as opposed to, say, the issue of pollution coming from a single factory?

N.R.: It is. Also it's difficult to think about something happening a thousand miles away. It's difficult to make changes. There are a lot of good-intentioned, more locally oriented farmers, not those in big agribusiness, that are doing the right thing. They are working with sustainable crops and artificial wetlands [that take up the nutrients that would otherwise go into the dead zone].

It's more economical for them to do some of these conservation activities than to keep buying fertilizer that just runs off the land. Farmers have always cared, because their land is their livelihood.

OAP: Why should other people care about dead zones?

N.R.: They should be concerned because the [dead zones] are affecting the livelihood and health of others.

OAP: What have been some challenging moments in the course of your work?

N.R.: Once in 2010, I accidentally came up from one of our dives under a [plume] of oil from the Deepwater Horizon. That was quite unpleasant. ?We got me and my buddy out of the water as soon as possible. I got oil all over me, and on my hair. But nobody got sick or anything.

Our marine lab has also been hit repeatedly by hurricanes like Hurricane Katrina. The storms seem more frequent than before. And the water level is getting higher with each storm.

OAP: How'd you first get interested in studying the ocean?

N.R.: My biology teacher in 8th grade turned me on to biology, and I took courses in that in undergrad. My school had a lot of marine-oriented trips; I learned to scuba dive, and it went from there.

OAP: What are you focused on studying now and in the near future?

N.R.: I have one large grant to study marsh health and ecosystem recovery. I'm continuing with the hypoxia work, and I'm never going to give up. ?

Reach Douglas Main at dmain@techmedianetwork.com. Follow him on Twitter @Douglas_Main. Follow OurAmazingPlanet on Twitter?@OAPlanet. We're also on?Facebook?and Google+.

Copyright 2012 OurAmazingPlanet, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/genius-award-winner-hunts-down-dead-zones-141243530.html

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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Voters: In role reversal, Obama aggressive, Romney passive

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Gene Genesis: Scientists Observe New Genes Evolving from Mutated Copies

Researchers have observed in an experiment the exact steps bacterial genes take to evolve a new ability, unexpectedly adding a new twist on an old model


Image: Christian Holm?r (CC) via flickr

The history of life on Earth has been marked by the evolution of new genes?humans clearly have more genes with more diverse functions than do amoebas. So where do these additional genes, with their new roles, come from? Analysis of genomes shows that the duplication and modification of existing genes seems to be a major avenue for such innovation.

Conventional wisdom had it that duplicate genes provide raw material for evolution. The original gene continues to do its job, whereas the other copy is free to evolve in a different direction.

For example, the venomous cocktail delivered by a platypus's spurs includes three peptides remarkably similar to an antimicrobial compound used in the critter's immune system. The venom molecules evolved from duplications of the gene that codes for an immune compound. Scientists refer to groups of similar genes with different functions as families. Humans carry duplications, too?a group of molecules in the back of the eye that react to incoming photons of light hail from the family of opsin genes. Duplicate genes in the human genome were likely key during divergence from our common ancestry with chimps.

The idea that gene duplication could result in genes with new functions has been around for awhile. Geneticist Susumu Ohno explained the theory in detail in 1970. He argued that duplication is the most important evolutionary force?more powerful than genetic drift, for example. Scientists are still working out the specifics because the vast majority of mutations eventually arising in the duplicates are harmful, meaning they result in function loss; the duplicates would need to stick around for generations before acquiring helpful mutations. But the model required that natural selection should spare the extra gene copies until they had a chance to change for the better.

This problem bothered Dan Andersson, a microbiologist at Uppsala University in Sweden, and John Roth, a geneticist at the University of California, Davis. To better explain how new genes could evolve they suggested a modification of the old model: instead of waiting around for a beneficial mutation, perhaps the beneficial mutation comes first.

This model takes note of the fact that many genes do their primary job of coding for a particular protein very well, but also have a weak secondary function that may become important under certain environmental stressors. For example, one gene might code for a protein that helps bacteria gobble glucose, but also allows the bacteria to snack on starchy cellulose. If all sugar disappears from its environment and only cellulose remains, the bacteria that have this gene will have the capacity to eat more cellulose and therefore be selected for over time and endure. Andersson and Roth's model posited that beneficial mutations already present by chance would be favored by natural selection and stick around in the genome. When the gene is amplified through the duplication, the extra copies give rise to new genes that are better at performing the secondary function, thereby making it prime. "The key is that it never goes off selection," Roth says.

In a study in the journal Science, Andersson, Roth and their colleagues demonstrate the process in lab-grown Salmonella enterica. They grew one strain missing a gene key for expressing the essential amino acid tryptophan. The strain needed to rely on another gene, which had a primary job but also a weak ability to take on the missing gene's work. The researchers encouraged the bacteria to duplicate the overworked gene, and its copies gathered mutations?some of which enhanced tryptophan production. At the end of a year's time (3,000 generations later) the bacteria had one gene that did the original job and a second that had evolved a new primary function?manufacturing tryptophan.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=e6d6097edd78f9a1eeb0e3e462d173ae

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Video: 11 years on, tables have turned in Afghan war (cbsnews)

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Monday, October 22, 2012

Childhood Pets Make Lasting Impact on Our Lives | Life With Cats

American Humane Association Survey ?People, Pets and the World We Share? Reveals Extraordinary Bond Between People And Their Pets

Grief of Losing Childhood Pets Carries Over into Adulthood, Affects Future Pet Ownership

A dramatic new survey released today by American Humane Association reveals the most compelling evidence to date of the vital and extraordinary bond between people and their pets, particularly between children and the animals they grew up with.? Indeed, four in 10 individuals say that the loss of a childhood pet from injury, disease or old age continues to affect them as adults. And, an even greater number of adults (44.4%) note that they are still affected by a pet who was given away, ran away or had an uncertain disposition.

These were the major findings of ?People, Pets and the World We Share,? a survey conducted by American Humane Association?s Animal Welfare Research Institute to examine the lasting impact a pet has on a child and the remarkable bond and loyalty they share.? Based on an email survey sent to its nationwide database of supporters and Facebook followers, respondents were asked to remember one animal from their childhood in answering the questions.

Dogs were by far the most popular childhood pet remembered, accounting for over 70 percent of responses.? Cats were second at 23.8%, with the remaining including a myriad of animals including horses, rabbits and hamsters.? 93.2% respondents were women, 44.8% were 30-49 years old, 43.2% over 50 with 12% under the age of 30.

?Experiences with a childhood pet remain throughout a person?s lifetime and showcase the transformative power of the human-animal bond and the amazing role that animals play in the lives of children,? says Dr. Robin Ganzert, President and CEO of American Humane Association.? ?Animals in our lives help to create the social network that is a cornerstone of creating humane communities. As the nation?s first humane organization, our unique dual mission is to improve the welfare, wellness and well-being of both children and animals. We are pleased to share the results of this survey as an important step for future work to assess and understand the world of people, pets and the inextricable link we share.?

Overcoming Grief Important Factor in Future Pet Ownership, Reducing Shelter Numbers

The survey backed the recent findings in a pet ownership study released earlier this year by American Humane Association and PetSmart Charities. ?In Phase One of the ?Keeping Pets (Dogs and Cats) in Homes Retention Study,? interviews with more than 1,000 previous pet owners revealed that lasting grief over the loss of a previous pet was a significant obstacle towards owning a new pet.?? Highlighting the emotional intricacies of the human-animal bond, one in five (20%) of previous dog owners and one in six (17%) of previous cat owners cited the loss of a beloved dog or cat as a reason they chose not to have another.? Helping people to overcome their reluctance to own another pet in adulthood is vital to decreasing the three to four million adoptable animals who are being euthanized in our nation?s shelters.

For many children, the passing of an animal might be their first experience dealing with the death of a member of their family.? Respondents were encouraged to provide comments about the animal they selected for the survey, and their emotional stories illustrate the lasting impact and irreplaceable bond they shared with their beloved pets.

Also illuminating is how parents of the respondents were remembered depending on the parents? involvement with the loss of a pet.? Some comments speak to a parent?s role in nurturing the human-animal bond, and a child?s ongoing feelings of fondness toward their parents as the result, while others express bitterness toward a parent that gave away a pet without their child?s knowledge.

A sampling of these comments follows:

??.I was only five when we had to euthanize [our pet] due to cancer.? My parents did note tell me until they brought him home to bury in our backyard.? I can still remember sitting there bawling.? That was 36 years ago.?

?? I was a lonely little girl, living with my father as my parents fought over my custody. This little dog was ALL I had?.. She was taken away from me, I never was told where to and I?ve never forgotten her? it was traumatic.?

?? ? I remember the details very clearly of his sudden illness, going to the vet, him being euthanized, and bringing him home to be buried?. I?ve always been thankful to my parents that the situation was handled with grace and dignity for our beloved Barney??

??To me, losing a pet is no different that losing a relative or friend.? They become a part of your family, and although they can?t communicate in forms of human language, the love and the bond that is created cannot be denied.? I?ve had to deal with the loss of two pets in my life and just like the death of a loved one, I grieved and still think about the time we had [together] often?.?

??Caring for a pet showed me the power of compassion and unconditional love??

?? Fuzzy was my best friend, my confidant and kid all rolled into one.? She helped me grow up and never feel alone?. I love and miss her greatly to this day??

?? My dog Stormy was there when I was brought home from the hospital and was by my side from that day on.? He was my best friend, my protector, my playmate and my confidant.? He died when I was 11 and my memories of him have never, and will never, die?.?

??my dog disappeared and I spent months searching for him.? I still have his picture to this day and am still haunted [by his loss] He was devoted to me and me to him??

?I know it might sound strange but I find it harder to see an animal pass away than a human.?

??Domino wasn?t just a pet, he was my best friend and every time I was sick, he stayed with me?if I had a [epileptic] seizure he stayed with me and then follow me around the house to be sure I was safe.? He meant the world to me and nobody could ever replace him or what he meant to me.? He was my rock for 18 years and I was his and I will never forget him.???

??having a pet as a child and being given the responsibility of caring for a creature that was dependent on its humans left me with a lifelong love of all animals and sympathy for those that have been neglected or abused??

To see the full study, presented in a clear and readable format, please go to: http://www.americanhumane.org/people-pets-and-the-world-we.pdf

Source:? American Humane Association


Source: http://www.lifewithcats.tv/2012/10/21/childhood-pets-make-lasting-impact-on-our-lives/

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Apple starts to prep California Theatre in San Jose ahead of tomorrow's event

Apple starts to prep California Theatre in San Jose ahead of tomorrow's eventApple has started to prepare the California Theatre in San Jose ahead of its special event tomorrow. Apple sent out invites last week for what is widely thought to be the official announcement of the iPad mini. The guys from Techie Buzz managed to capture a few pictures of the graphics which are being used for the event.

Apple starts to prep California Theatre in San Jose ahead of tomorrow's event

The media event is scheduled to start on Tuesday October 23 at 10:00 am PT. The only clue on the invitation are the words, "We've got a little more to show you". It is widely expected that the event will reveal the rumored iPad mini as well as an updated iPad 3 with Lightning cable and international LTE, a 13-inch Retina MacBook Pro as well as new iMacs and Mac minis. We may also see the final version of iTunes 11 although it is unclear if it will be released at the same time.

What do you make of the posters used in the decoration of the theatre?

Source: Techie Buzz



Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheIphoneBlog/~3/XbnYtskJpe0/story01.htm

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Italian court convicts 7 for no quake warning

People listen to the verdict at L'Aquila court, Italy, Monday, Oct. 22, 2012. An Italian court has convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people. The court in L'Aquila Monday evening handed down the convictions and six-year-prison sentences to the defendants, members of a national "Great Risks Commission." In Italy, convictions aren't definitive until after at least one level of appeals, so it is unlikely any of the defendants would face jail immediately. Scientists worldwide had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no way to predict quakes. (AP Photo/Raniero Pizzi)

People listen to the verdict at L'Aquila court, Italy, Monday, Oct. 22, 2012. An Italian court has convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people. The court in L'Aquila Monday evening handed down the convictions and six-year-prison sentences to the defendants, members of a national "Great Risks Commission." In Italy, convictions aren't definitive until after at least one level of appeals, so it is unlikely any of the defendants would face jail immediately. Scientists worldwide had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no way to predict quakes. (AP Photo/Raniero Pizzi)

Defendants Claudio Eva, center, and Bernardo De Bernardinis, third from right, a former official of the national Civil Protection agency, listen to the verdict at L'Aquila court, Italy, Monday, Oct. 22, 2012. An Italian court has convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people. The court in L'Aquila Monday evening handed down the convictions and six-year-prison sentences to the defendants, members of a national "Great Risks Commission." In Italy, convictions aren't definitive until after at least one level of appeals, so it is unlikely any of the defendants would face jail immediately. Scientists worldwide had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no way to predict quakes. (AP Photo/Raniero Pizzi)

Judge Marco Billi, right, reads the verdict at L'Aquila court, Italy, Monday, Oct. 22, 2012. An Italian court has convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people. The court in L'Aquila Monday evening handed down the convictions and six-year-prison sentences to the defendants, members of a national "Great Risks Commission." In Italy, convictions aren't definitive until after at least one level of appeals, so it is unlikely any of the defendants would face jail immediately. Scientists worldwide had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no way to predict quakes. (AP Photo/Raniero Pizzi)

(AP) ? Defying assertions that earthquakes cannot be predicted, an Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter Monday for failing to adequately warn residents before a temblor struck central Italy in 2009 and killed more than 300 people.

The court in L'Aquila also sentenced the defendants to six years each in prison. All are members of the national Great Risks Commission, and several are prominent scientists or geological and disaster experts.

Scientists had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no reliable way of predicting earthquakes. So news of the verdict shook the tightknit community of earthquake experts worldwide.

"It's a sad day for science," said seismologist Susan Hough, of the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, Calif. "It's unsettling." That fellow seismic experts in Italy were singled out in the case "hits you in the gut," Hough added.

In Italy, convictions aren't definitive until after at least one level of appeals, so it is unlikely any of the defendants would face jail immediately.

Other Italian public officials and experts have been put on trial for earthquake-triggered damage, such as the case in southern Italy for the collapse of a school in a 2002 quake in which 27 children and a teacher were killed. But that case centered on allegations of shoddy construction of buildings in quake-prone areas.

State TV noted that this was the first time prosecutors had brought a case based on the failure to predict an earthquake.

Among those convicted Monday were some of Italy's most well-known and internationally respected seismologists and geological experts, including Enzo Boschi, former head of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.

"I am dejected, desperate," Boschi said after the verdict. "I thought I would have been acquitted. I still don't understand what I was convicted of."

The trial began in September 2011 in this Apennine town, whose devastated historic center is still largely deserted.

The defendants were accused in the indictment of giving "inexact, incomplete and contradictory information" about whether small tremors felt by L'Aquila residents in the weeks and months before the April 6, 2009, quake should have constituted grounds for a quake warning.

The 6.3-magnitude temblor killed 308 people in and around the medieval town and forced survivors to live in tent camps for months.

Many much smaller earth tremors had rattled the area in the months before the quake, causing frightened people to wonder if they should evacuate.

"I consider myself innocent before God and men," said another convicted defendant, Bernardo De Bernardinis, a former official of the national Civil Protection agency.

Prosecutors had sought convictions and four-year sentences during the trial. They argued in court that the L'Aquila disaster was tantamount to "monumental negligence," and cited the devastation wrought in the southern United States in 2005 when levees failed to protect the city of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.

Relatives of some who perished in the 2009 quake said justice has been done. Ilaria Carosi, sister of one of the victims, told Italian state TV that public officials must be held responsible "for taking their job lightly."

The world's largest multi-disciplinary science society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, condemned the charges, verdict and sentencing as a complete misunderstanding about the science behind earthquake probabilities.

There are swarms of seismic activity regularly in Italy and most do not end up causing dangerous earthquakes, said AAAS geologist Brooks Hanson, deputy editor of the organization's Science magazine. He said that if seismologists had to warn of a quake with every swarm there would be too many false alarms and panic.

"With earthquakes we just don't know," Hanson said Monday. "We just don't know how a swarm will proceed."

Comments on Twitter about the verdict abounded with references to Galileo, the Italian scientist who was tried as a heretic in 1633 for his contention that the Earth revolved around the sun and not vice versa as Catholic church teaching then held. In 1992, then-Pope John Paul II declared that the church had erred in its ruling against the astronomer.

Defense lawyer Filippo Dinacci predicted that the L'Aquila court's verdict would have a chilling effect on officials tasked with protecting Italians in natural disasters. Public officials would be afraid to "do anything," Dinacci told reporters.

___

Frances D'Emilio contributed from Rome. AP science writers Alicia Chang and Seth Borenstein contributed from the United States.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2012-10-22-Italy-Quake%20Trial/id-28b3d732c1724830893046871dba6ac5

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It Takes a Theory to - Legal Theory Blog - Typepad

Introduction?

"It takes a theory to beat a theory"--this is surely one of the top ten all-time comments uttered by law professors to one another in those ritual interactions that are called "faculty workshops" or "colloquia."? The first instance of the comment that I can find in the legal literature appears in an article by Richard Epstein [92 Yale Law Journal 1435 (1983)], and some legal academics associate the comment with Professor Epstein, whose facility in law faculty workshops is legendary.

What does "It takes a theory to beat a theory" mean?? What is the point or purpose of making this comment in a debate about normative or positive legal theory?? Of course, the core idea is relatively straightforward.? One can't beat a theory just by nitpicking.? We go with the best theory we have, warts and all.? So if you want to beat a theory, you must show it is not the best theory we have, and the only way to do that is to produce a better theory.? Hence,?it takes a theory to beat a theory.? Or to put it crudely, if we are playing "king of the hill," whoever is on top stays there until pushed off.

Most of the entries in the?Legal Theory Lexicon?series deal with some concept, theory, or idea that law students are likely to encounter in their first year of law school.? But this entry is a little different.? "It takes a theory to beat a theory" is not likely to be heard much in the classroom.? It's a "workshop comment" not a "class comment."? But in a way, that makes this idea all the important for law students, including first year law students, with an interest in legal theory.? And understanding this move and its counters is essential for anyone who plans a career in the legal academy.

The Aphorism and its Applications?

Here is one of the most famous examples of the aphorism at work--although the exact words do not appear.? This is Justice Scalia, in his famous article,?Originalism, the Lesser Evil:

Apart from the frailty of its theoretical underpinning, nonoriginalism confronts a practical difficulty reminiscent of the truism of elective politics that "You can't beat somebody with nobody."' It is not enough to demonstrate that the other fellow's candidate (originalism) is no good; one must also agree upon another candidate to replace him. Just as it is not very meaningful for a voter to vote "non-Reagan,"' it is not very helpful to tell a judge to be a "non-originalist."' If the law is to make any attempt at consistency and predictability, surely there must be general agreement not only that judges reject one exegetical approach (originalism), but that they adopt another. And it is hard to discern any emerging consensus among the nonoriginalists as to what this might be.

Here is another version of the argument--this time from George Stigler's 1982?Nobel Prize Lecture:

Nevertheless the economic theory of regulation is achieving a substantial scientific prosperity. Its findings with respect to both the operation and the origins of regulatory policies directed to particular industries (such as the securities markets, transportation, and occupational licensing) command a substantial support. To be sure, the explanatory triumphs have not been overwhelming, and indeed the theory itself is still relatively primitive. The main reason for the considerable acceptance of the approach is that fundamental rule of scientific combat: it takes a theory to beat a theory. No amount of scepticism about the fertility of a theory can deter its use unless the sceptic can point to another route by which the scientific problem of regulation can be studied successfully.

Variations?

If you've been paying close attention, you will have noticed that Scalia and Stigler were making very different arguments--relying on different premises and with only a surface level similarity.? "It takes a theory to beat a theory"--is not a single move.? It's several different moves, each of which can nonetheless be expressed via the same aphorism.? Let's quickly catalog some of the variations:

--"It takes a practice to replace a practice."? This variation is at the root of Scalia's point.? You can't vote against a candidate; you must vote for someone.? You can't just stop interpreting the constitution if you reject originalism; it takes some other interpretive practice to substitute for originalism.

--"It takes a better explanatory theory to substitute for a theory that has even limited success."? This variation is at the root of Stigler's point.? The economic theory has some success; so it will continue as the "dominant paradigm" until something better comes along.

--"It takes a better normative theory to substitute for a normative theory that has plausible support."? Thus, one might say that it takes a better theory of justice to displace Rawls's theory.

And I'm sure there are many other variations.

Counter Moves?

What are the counter moves to "It takes a theory to beat a theory."? They are legion, and many are contextual, but here are a few typical counter moves:

--Expose the hidden "presumption."? It takes a theory to beat a theory may assume that the theory in question must be "beaten" or it stands.? But that assumption requires a justification. It must be argued there is some "presumption" in favor of the theory's validity.? What is the source of that presumption?? Why does this theory enjoy the presumption rather than a rival theory?? Sometimes these questions can't be answered.? Other times there are answers, but once they are articulated, they can be contested.

--It doesn't take a theory to beat an argument.??Even if it does take a theory to beat a theory, it doesn't take a theory to beat an argument.? Arguments fail if they are invalid or unsound. Arguments are invalid if the conclusions don't flow from the premises. Arguments are unsound if their premises are false.? So when someone says, "It takes a theory to beat a theory," you can reply, "Oh, you thought I was trying to beat a theory, but what I actually did was to beat an argument."

--Recharacterize the Status Quo.? Frequently, "it takes a theory to beat a theory," assumes that the theory to be beaten is, in some sense, the status quo--the current king of the hill, the way we are doing or thinking now.? But this is not necessarily the case.? Take the "originalism" example.? One might argue that "originalism" isn't the "king of the hill."? Rather, the status quo is eclecticism--a little precedent, a little originalism, a little instrumentalism, etc.? So if the case for originalism is inadequate, the presumption is for the status quo--not originalism.? In other words, poking holes may be enough.? Once the theory in question is no longer the status quo, the question becomes is the?new?theory demonstrably better than what we've got now.

--Deny the Theory Assumption.? "It takes a theory to beat a theory" assumes that the issue at hand is one which is properly addressed by a theory.? Let's call that, "the theory assumption."? But the theory assumption can itself be contested. Here's a marvelous example of "denying the theory assumption," from Dan Farber, himself famous for this move:

The last ditch defense of the rational choice theory is to insist that it takes a theory to beat a theory, and that the behavioralists have only assembled a collection of empirical regularities without any unifying theory. The behavioralists indignantly respond that they do have a theory, although an incomplete one. The assumption on both sides is apparently that the sine qua non of social science is having a unified predictive theory. But perhaps this is merely another symptom of economics' famous case of "physics envy." Physics presents a breathtaking example of mathematical elegance combined with fantastically accurate predictions. But taking physics as the paradigm of science may be a mistake. Today's great success story among the sciences may well be biology. Biology does have a central paradigm (evolution) and an understanding of its molecular basis. But organisms, because they are the products of evolution rather than design, are extremely complex, and no one seems to think that their features can be predicted in any detail on the basis of a deductive theory.

(Daniel A. Farber,?Toward a New Legal Realism, 68 U. Chi. L. Rev. 279, 295 (2001))

There are many ways of doing this.? Here's one way of making the move: "Hmm.? You seem to be?assuming?that we need a theory here.? I'm puzzled.??Why?would you assume?that?" Stressing the words in italics.? This move puts the burden on the maker of the "It takes a theory to beat a theory" move to justify the theory assumption--and as a practical matter, it also buys you time.

--Go Pragmatic.??This is a variation of denying the theory assumption.? When someone asks for a theory, you can reply that the subject at hand requires a "contextualist" and "pragmatic" analysis.??As the scare quotes indicate, I'm not very fond of this move.

--Go Metatheoretical.??This move embraces the notion that it takes a theory to replace a theory, but denies that the way that happens is through direct confrontation.? The idea is that the way we replace theories is by accumulating the data points the theory can't handle.? Here's a nice example of this move from Tom Ulen:

One frequently hears it said that "it takes a theory to beat a theory." Those who invoke that view are typically doing so in order to justify maintaining the rational choice paradigm until some well-articulated theory comes along to replace it. That is not, however, how scientific advances typically occur. Rather, anomalies arise and are either explained within an amended paradigm or serve as observations that make a case for another paradigm (as yet undefined).

(Thomas S. Ulen,?A Nobel Prize in Legal Science: Theory, Empirical Work, and the Scientific Method in the Study of Law, 2002 U. Ill. L. Rev. 875, 887, n. 47)

--I've Got a Theory.??Of course, this move is especially impressive in the context of a workshop.? Your paper makes a critical or destructive point.? Someone in the audience goes "It takes a theory to beat a theory."? And you go, "Great point.? I've got a theory and here it is."? You then get 5 minutes of uninterrupted theory exposition, and, of course, no one at the workshop has heard your theory before, and hence, no one has had an opportunity to prepare objections.

--It Takes a Theory to Beat a?Theory, but you have no Theory.??This is a variation of Lloyd Bentsen's famous,?"Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy."? The idea is this: "It takes a theory to beat a theory," assumes that we have a?theory?of X on the table.? So one effective counter is an argument that there is no "theory of x" to replace.? One way to do this is to set out a list of criteria, C1, C2, C3 . . . Cn, that must be fulfilled if a given cluster of ideas (I1, I2, I3, . . . In) is to count as a theory, T, of a subject, X.? You then argue that the view on the table is not a true theory, because it fails one or more of the criteria.

A variation on this move is "It doesn't take a theory to beat a really?bad?theory."? If your objection to a theory makes it clear that the theory?cannot?be correct, then it doesn't take theory to beat a theory.? Or to continue the metaphor, "You don't have to become the king of the hill to knock someone down."

Undoubtedly, there are many other standard countermoves and numerous others that are relevant to particular contexts.? I hope this post gets you started.

Conclusion?

"It takes a theory to beat a theory."? Or does it?? I hope this?Lexicon?installment has given you a taste of this famous move and some of the replies.? And I also hope that it has provided some of the flavor of the intellectual atmosphere of faculty workshops and colloquia.? As always, theLexicon?provides only a simplified (and all too often simplistic) treatment of a subject that deserves an extended discussion.

Related Lexicon Entires

Bibliography

  • Richard A. Epstein,?Common Law, Labor Law, and Reality: A Rejoinder to Professors Getman and Kohler,?92 Yale Law Journal 1435?(1983).
  • Daniel A. Farber,?Toward a New Legal Realism, 68 U. Chi. L. Rev. 279, 295 (2001)
  • Antonin Scalia,?Originalism: The Lesser Evil,?57 U. Cin. L. Rev. 849 (1989).
  • George J. Stigler,?The Process and Progress of Economics, Nobel Memorial Lecture, 8 December, 1982.
  • Thomas S. Ulen,?A Nobel Prize in Legal Science: Theory, Empirical Work, and the Scientific Method in the Study of Law, 2002 U. Ill. L. Rev. 875, 887, n. 47.

Resources on the Web

  • Adam Kolber, Theory v. Theory?(March 16, 2006)
  • James E. Ryan, Does It Take a Theory? Originalism, Active Liberty and Minimalism?(January 27, 2006)
  • Lawrence Solum, It Takes a Theory to Beat a Theory?(September 12, 2002)
  • Paul Gowder, ?It takes a theory to beat a theory? is false or vacuous, and possibly also incoherent.?(December 8, 2008)

(Last modified on October 12, 2012.)

Source: http://lsolum.typepad.com/legaltheory/2012/10/introduction-it-takes-a-theory-to-beat-a-theory-this-is-surely-one-of-the-top-ten-all-time-comments-uttered-by-law-professo.html

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Staten Island's small businesses need track record to obtain a loan ...

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. - If you're thinking about starting a small business, want to expand your existing company or are in need of funding to keep your commercial operation afloat in these tough economic times, you're likely seeking a loan.

However, with banks tightening the reins on lending for businesses without a pristine credit standing and good cash flow, a loan can be hard to obtain.

"Since the 'severe recession,' small businesses have faced some difficulties," said Dean L. Balsamini, director of the Staten Island Small Business Development Center (SBDC), which offers free one-on-one consultations with start-up and existing businesses, seminars, management roundtable discussions and other educational opportunities.

"There's been a reduced borrowing capacity in many cases because banks have been much more selective in the loan process."

Bank lenders admit that it can be difficult to obtain a small business loan.

"It's challenging (to get a small business loan) today," said Ken Doherty, executive vice president of Northfield Bank.

"We have a situation where you have flat revenue, where sales aren't increasing because many (small business owners) have leases that date back to 2007 and 2008 when rents were extremely high. Today, they (small business owners) need capital more than they need debt."

Northfield Bank uses three elements of criteria to determine if a small business qualifies for a loan.

"To obtain a loan we want a credit score of 680, three years experience in business and adequate cash flow to service the debt," Doherty said.

In many cases, small businesses aren't getting loans because they lack adequate cash flow. "Taxes seem to be a major problem because they are a drain on business owners' cash flow. Then you add all other operating expenses," Doherty said.

While small business people are often faced with obstacles when applying for a loan, this goal isn't unattainable.

"I think small businesses can get loans today," Balsamini said, "but it's somewhat difficult unless you have a track record. If you ask for a loan and the lending institution asks you to put up 20 or 30 percent collateral, and you can do that, plus provide funding over the first three to six months, then you've established credibility. It's a matter of having your oar in the water with the bank."

Another option is working with an alternative lender. For example, Michael J. Genovese, senior underwriter for Universal Merchant Funding, says his company specializes in funding for small- to medium-size businesses.

"We provide term loans for these business people. We can provide loans to people with credit scores of 550. We can even help some people with credit scores of about 500," he said.

"We'll walk into a company that has been in business for more than six months and give it an unsecured term loan. You don't have to put up any type of collateral. The loan is based on cash flow -- how much money is coming in and out of the business."

He said the average loans his company gives to small businesses are between $40,000 and $50,000 and are used for inventory, expansion, renovations and taxes. ?

MAXIMIZING LOAN POTENTIAL ?

Balsamini suggests that business owners do the following to maximize their chances of qualifying for a loan:

*Have a solid updated business plan. "Lenders look at the whole package," he said, noting the SBDC helps small businesses develop their business plan.

"Know your market. Know your competition. When you demonstrate that you have a handle on your products and services, this is a great way to establish credibility with a lender."

*Know your business and personal credit rating. "Everyone is entitled to free reports from each of the three credit unions -- Equifax (equifax.com), TransUnion (transunion.com) and Experian (experian.com)," he said.

"If your credit rating is poor, you should know that, but you also want to know why it's poor. In many cases, there could be erroneous information, where you've closed out credit cards, and you can get that remedied."

He noted that personal credit weighs in a lender's equation for granting a loan. "It's very important to have your credit rating in good shape. You want to be in the 700+ range," he said.

However, if you have poor credit and limited cash flow in your business, and have been denied a loan, there are ways to cut business costs to keep your company afloat.

"You need to internalize, look at your business and see where you can cut costs," said Balsamini. "Do an analysis of your business. Ask yourself 'do I have enough people doing the right jobs? Do I have credibility in the community? Have I retained my customers in this tough period? How can I lower my cost base? The first step is establishing cost containment." ?

Source: http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/10/staten_islands_small_businesse_1.html

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Saturday, October 13, 2012

AfricaNews - Malawi: Population, climate change to swallow nature ...

Each day is always tiresome for 58-year-old widow Lucia Kamchepa in Traditional Authority (T/A) Kuntaja in Blantyre, southern Malawi. As a woman, she works for many hours within her two-bed roomed grass thatched hut she calls home and several kilometers away from it soon after getting up early in the morning but sleeps just for a few hours.

?Every day I have to walk for 5 Km to fetch some water from a well the only source of water for drinking and cooking in my village,? said the mother of 6 and 14 grandchildren adding that sometimes the water source dries up annually during dry season between August and December.

??and apart from fetching water, I also have to walk for another long distance in search for firewood for cooking and lighting,? explained Kamchepa.

Located in Middle Shire, Kuntaja Area is one of the areas where the pains of the impact of climate change are clear in Malawi.

Here, villagers including Kamchepa struggle to access water, firewood and even to produce food in their gardens through agricultural activities because of routine frequent erratic rainfall that lead to droughts resulting from climate change due to previous massive environmental degradation activities such as deforestation and poor land use.

The present experiences however, are just a sign of more problems yet to come ahead since projections indicate that Malawi?s high population growth due to high fertility rate and rampant acts of environmental degradation and climate change are to swallow the country?s natural resources to the extent that accessing them would then be a mountain to climb as they would be inadequate for the population.

In Malawi, like in most sub-Saharan Africa region, women are inferior to men due to gender disparities, and due to some cultural beliefs inherited since time immemorial valuing children as human assets in families, women are turned into like heavily burdened child bearing machines.

Women in this region are expected to bear as many children as they can with a belief that the offsprings will later provide the husband and wife and members of the extended family with social security benefits including food, clothing, shelter and other necessities and even luxuries.

The children have to provide these as a token of appreciation that they exist in the world because of their parents and members of the extended families.

However, this is one of the major same reason, among other things, putting mother?s and children?s health at risk, fueling poverty as well as increasing population beyond governments funded inadequate available social services such as health, education, safe water, energy just but mentioning a few which are mainly donor funded.

In Malawi?s case according to the population projections by the state run National Statistical Office (NSO), the 2012 population in the country stands at 14.8 million but the quality of its life reveals a sad tale.

This is so because according to the NSO 2010/2011 Integrated Household Survey (HIS), one in every two persons in this population lives below the poverty line while one in every four people being in extreme poverty.

UNFPA Population and Development Programme Manager for Malawi Thomas Chataghalala Munthali said one of the major factors contributing to poverty in Malawi is the size of households.

?It?s a fact that household size is one of the key factors affecting the level of household poverty-the 2006 Malawi Poverty and Vulnerability Analysis verifies the point. The short of it, quality of life and poverty levels are highly linked to population size,? he said adding that this is due to Malawi?s high fertility rate.

?Statistics speak for themselves: Current total fertility rate is 5.7 children per woman-one of the highest in the region; Women have their first births at a median age of 18.9 years-so young; 26 percent of teenagers have already begun childbearing-early childbearing; 73 percent of currently married women either want no more children or want to wait at least 2 years before their next child,? explained Munthali.

He further said statistics clearly reveal that women in Malawi demand for a small family size.

?42 percent of married women and 46 percent of sexually active unmarried women are using a modern method-increasing acceptance for family planning methods; 26 percent of married women have unmet need for family planning-clear demand,? explained Munthali.

He added: ?Simply put, if we can meet the demand for family planning by the population, we can begin to address an important component of climate change ?population pressure.?

Munthali emphasized that there is a strong link between population dynamics on one hand and climate change and poverty on the other especially for an agrarian country like Malawi.

?Therefore, tackling one side of the equation would be fighting a losing battle,? he said.

Minus all other factors that are contributing to majority (over 60 per 100 people in Malawi?s population being stuck in the pains of poverty, high fertility rate indeed need urgent attention or the country should brace up for more tough times to emanate from few natural resources against a project population boom ahead.

?Malawi is one of 15 population and climate change hot spots characterized by a high population rate.Rapid population growth places enormous pressure on natural resources such as water, energy and land,? said recently a visiting expert, Roger Mark De Souza Vice President of the Washington DC (US) based Population Action International (PAI) in Lilongwe during the joint launch of a report on Population Dynamics and Climate Change by his organization and the Nairobi (Kenya) based African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEV).

He disclosed that Malawi?s current population density of 126 people per square kilometer is among the highest in Africa.

?The population will grow six-ford to 803 people per square kilometer by 2050.Resource challenges including water, energy and land access are already felt most in the densely populated parts of the southern and central regions of the country,? said De Souza.

He further explained that Malawi will also experience a major shift in the distribution of its population, with the share of its inhabitants living in urban areas doubling from about 16 percent to 32 percent by 2050.

?Currently, two out of three residents live in slum settlements in Malawi, which are characterized by high vulnerability to flooding, poor environmental sanitation and lack of basic social services including water,energy and land,? said De Souza adding,?If not planned for, urbanization could result in increased concentration of poverty in urban areas and frustrate efforts to reduce poverty itself.?

AFIDEP?s Executive Director, Eliya Zulu, a Malawian based in Nairobi, Kenya disclosed that the PAI and AFIDEP joint research had revealed many Climate Change and Environmental Challenges in Malawi based on stakeholder interviews.

He said the challenges include increased water scarcity, unpredictable weather patterns, recurring flooding, recurring droughts, unpredictable start of rainfall, short rainy seasons and prolonged dry spells during rainy season, drying up of rivers and lakes, low fish supplies, excessive temperatures (heat waves), landslides, frequent bush fires, increased prevalence of water borne diseases, low and unstable hydro-electric production, declining flora and fauna, and declining natural species.

?Population dynamics and climate change therefore, states that investments in reproductive health and family planning should be considered among the country?s priority adaptation actions. However, it does not propose a specific project with components of reproductive health and family planning as interventions,? he said.

In a study, ?Population and Reproductive Health in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) for Climate Change in Africa? Mutunga, C and K Hardee also say inclusion of climate change and population dynamics in Malawi?s development blueprint, the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS II), presents an opportunity for integrating these issues and mainstreaming them in other sectors.

?However, the following challenges need to be overcome: Lack of climate change policy and strategy, fragmentation of climate change and population policies, weak coordination mechanisms for population and climate change programmes,? they say.

The researchers add that other barriers for Malawi also include weak analysis of issues and slow approval of policies, poor implementation of policies, insufficient government funding for population and climate change programmes, leading to over-reliance on donors, weak technical capacity in programme design, implementation, and evaluation, as well as weak research capacity to generate evidence to guide policies and programmes.

On her part, Malawi?s Principal Secretary (PS) for Environment and Climate Change Yanira Ntupanyama admitted that the country?s population was growing at fast rate.

?Malawi?s human population is now at about 14 million. Projections show that with increasing fertility rates, this figure would reach 26 millon by the year 2030 which will make it hard for people to access basic needs for their upkeep,? she said adding that Malawi is even already paying a price for unsustainable natural use.

?Malawi as a country would be richer by $191 million per year which is translated into giving up 5.3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year if soil, forest, fisheries and wildlife resources were used sustainably. This is largely due to unsustainable use of natural resources. It is for this reason, therefore, that we need to fully integrate population dynamics into climate change adaptation,? said Ntupanyama.

According to the joint research by PAI and AFIDEP Climate Change Impacts in Malawi will be enormous since the country?s economy is dependent on rain-fed agricultural production, which is dominated by smallholder farming.

The World Bank says agriculture contributes 30 percent of Malawi?s Gross National Product (GNP), and supports livelihoods for over 80 percent of the
population.

Like many other African countries that depend on rain-fed agriculture for economic survival, Malawi is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Some of these effects are already being seen: erratic rainfall, increased water scarcity, rising temperatures and extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods and droughts.

There are also decreases in agricultural production and environmental degradation as a result of climate change threatening the country?s economy and its people?s well-being.

Climate change is also contributing to low fish stocks, unstable hydroelectric production and rapid deforestation in Malawi.

Given the strong links between climate change, related environmental issues and population dynamics, integrated policy and programme responses to addressing them would make sense and offer combined benefits.

Yet the two issues are weakly linked at policy level, and programmes to address them are largely implemented separately.

Malawi?s population policies, including those addressing reproductive health and gender, do not specifically make reference to climate change.

However, they do highlight the need for inter-sectoral policy, planning and programme cooperation to address the country?s population challenges and achieve sustainable development.

Malawi does not yet have a climate change policy. Nevertheless, most of the policies on environmental issues related to climate change ?land, water, irrigation, fisheries, energy, forestry, and food security? recognize the role of population dynamics in the preservation of natural resources.

The policies however, are not as emphatic in integrating population interventions in their work.

Source: http://www.africanews.com/site/Malawi_Population_climate_change_to_swallow_nature/list_messages/42433

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